Some thoughts on Dr. Wenhong Zhang

"We could have fought to the end, but this could have led to a runaway earth engine, a situation which, if it happened, would have burned through the earth with excess fusion of matter or vaporized all the oceans, so we decided to surrender. We understand all of you, for it is indeed a luxury to remain sane forever in the midst of a difficult struggle that has been going on for forty generations and will continue for another hundred. But let all also remember us, these five thousand or so men who stand here, here the supreme consuls of the coalition government, and here the ordinary soldiers of the column, who have kept the faith to the end. We all know that we will not see the day when the truth is proven, but if mankind survives for ten thousand generations, all who come afterward will shed their own tears at our graves, and this planet, called Earth, will be our eternal monument!"

The huge sealed doors of the control center rumbled open, and the group of five thousand or so of the last of the Earth faction walked out, escorted by the rebels towards the coast. The road was packed on both sides, everyone spitting at them and pelting them with ice and rocks. The masks of some of their sealed suits were cracked, and the cold outside, over a hundred degrees below zero, numbed the faces of those men, but still they strove on. I saw a little girl lifting up a large piece of ice and slamming it with all her strength at an old man, her eyes shooting out crazy anger through her mask.
-- Vagabond Earth

Before, I have always felt that Liu Cixin has a big brain and a wonderful story writing, but so many things have happened in the past three years, especially after the recent liberalization of the epidemic control, more and more I feel that no one understands human nature better than Da Liu.

Recently, the topic of Zhang Wenhong on the know-how is very noisy, some people are against him, out of a variety of compilation book, there are also people continue to support him.

In my impression, I have always been more resistant to Dr. Zhang Wenhong, from the time he said "the last winter", I think it does not seem very reliable.

Looking back to 2021, the Indian epidemic resulting in inadequate medical oxygen supply, open burning of corpses, etc., all illustrate to us the horrific power of COVID-19.

And turn to the beginning of April 2022, in the early days of Shanghai sealing control, Zhang Wenhong repeatedly made the wrong prediction, and even threw out the "Shanghai epidemic inflection point" theory.

I had compared Shanghai's and Taiwan's outbreak data in 2022 on December 12, 2022 The number of deaths in Taiwan is more than ten times higher than that in Shanghai, and there are even deaths in all age groups, despite the fact that the two places have similar baseline conditions and even Taiwan's dominance of the Omicron strain, which is also less potent than Delta.


Wenhong Zhang's team has published a paper in which it was suggested that very few Omicron-infected patients have symptoms.

In one interview, Dr. Zhang Wenhong claimed that there were "no serious cases, not one case requiring hospitalization," no different from the flu.


This is a data from Application of a 7-point rating scale to compare the severity of illness in patients hospitalized for influenza A and B (chinapneumonia.co.uk), which shows that the China-Japan Friendship Hospital enrolled a total of 574 eligible patients, including 369 (64.3%) influenza A cases and 205 (35.7%) influenza B cases. The overall hospitalization case-fatality rate was 9.8%. 113 cases (19.7%) were admitted to the ICU. median length of stay was 13 days (IQR 8-17 days).

At the same time, the mortality rate for influenza A was 0.02%, with an R~0~ of only 1.5 .

Even if we disregard the current medical and funeral squeeze, it is still confusing the facts and stealing concepts simply by the content of his statements in the interview.

I do not think that Dr. Zhang Wenhong has a direct influence on the national epidemic prevention and control policy, but under the strong push of the media, Dr. Zhang Wenhong's remarks seem to be the Bible in the face of COVID-19.

I insist that there are many people precisely because of blind faith in Dr. Zhang Wenhong's words, and wrongly believe that COVID-19 is not as good as the flu or even worse than a cold, that they are physically fit to stand up and get over it, and therefore did not prepare any medicines in advance. (Influenza and cold are two different diseases, and the severity of the former is much higher than the latter, but due to the Chinese context and the scientific literacy of most people, many people think that influenza and cold are equal.)


I insist that Dr. Zhang Wenhong, as a medical expert speaking to the public, has the obligation and responsibility to be responsible for public health, and at the same time, he and his team, should uphold the spirit of prudent science and be responsible for the results of his scientific research.

Of course, I am a small person and this website is hardly visited by anyone else, so my opinion cannot reverse anything or change anyone's mind, but I will stand by my opinion.

Dr. Zhang Wenhong and his team should apologize to the public.